**2020.SP.PHI.2130.001.: Argument & Inference, Section 01 (Spring 2020)**

**“Due – 12 Hours”**

**Answer: 6 Questions:**

**Answer: 3 Short Essays Questions **

__Answer these Multiple-choice Questions:__

**1 –** What is the Primary purpose of Bayes’ Theorem?

**2 –** To what rule is Bayes’ Theorem Equivalent?

**3 –** What is prior probability?

**4 –** What is posterior probability?

**5-** How does someone estimate prior probability in Bayes’ Theorem? Prior statistical evidence? Educated guesses? Sometimes one or the other or a combination of the above two? prior probability, and posterior probability Why?

**6 –** How could Bayes’ Theorem be used to help evaluate how effective a potential vaccine against COVID-19? Think in terms of the probability of getting the disease before the vaccine and after, and then relate that to prior and posterior probability.

** Three Short Essays**:

__Answer the three â€œShort Essay Questionsâ€ Please. thanks__- Write an â€œEssayâ€ that simply asks you to show how Bayes’ Theorem could work given a particular problem in â€œBusiness Admin/Human Resources Management.
- The second question asks; that if Bayes’ Theorem at sometimes in history shows a higher probability for a particular hypothesis, and later on a lower one, and perhaps later on higher again, how can we trust the reliability of science as a source of knowledge?
- The Oxford philosopher Richard Swinburne has argued that Bayes’ Theorem can be used to show that the probability of God’s existence given new evidence of intelligent design is greater than 50%. Is this a legitimate use of Bayes’ Theorem? Why or why not? (For those interested in science and religion, he makes an anthropic argument for God’s existence).