Statistical Analysis II Directions

Statistical Analysis II Directions: Be sure to make an electronic copy of your answer before submitting it to Ashworth College for grading. Unless otherwise stated, answer in complete sentences, and be sure to use correct English spelling and grammar. Sources must be cited in APA format. Your response should be a minimum of one (1) single-spaced page to a maximum of two (2) pages in length; refer to the Assignment Format page for specific format requirements.

1. Briefly advise each of the following two (2) people on specific research studies that he or she might find useful. For each person, propose a reporting, descriptive, explanatory, and predictive study. a. Manager of a full-service restaurant with high employee turnover (the management decision problem is known) b. Director of Big Brothers/Big Sisters in charge of sponsor recruiting (the management decision problem has not yet been specified) 2. Distinguish between the items in the following sets and describe the significance of each in a research context: a. Concept and construct b. Deduction and induction

c. Concept and variable d. Hypothesis and proposition e. Theory and model

1. The quarterly production of pine lumber, in millions of board feet, by Northwest Lumber since 1996 is shown in the following table: Quarter Year Winter Spring Summer Fall 1996 7.8 10.2 14.7 9.3 1997 6.9 11.6 17.5 9.3 1998 8.9 9.7 15.3 10.1 1999 10.7 12.4 16.8 10.7 2000 9.2 13.6 17.1 10.3

a. Determine the typical seasonal pattern for the production data using the ratio-to-moving average method. b. Interpret the pattern. c. Deseasonalize the data and determine the linear trend equation. d. Project the seasonally adjusted production for the four quarters of 2001. 2. Sales of roof material, by quarter, since 1994 for Carolina Home Construction, Inc. are shown below (in $000): Quarter Year I II III IV 1994 210 180 60 246 1995 214 216 82 230 1996 246 228 91 280 1997 258 250 113 298 1998 279 267 116 304 1999 302 290 114 310 2000 321 291 120 320

a. Determine the typical seasonal patterns for sales using the ratio-to-moving average method. b. Deseasonalize the data and determine the trend equation. c. Project the sales for 2001, and then seasonally adjust each quarter.

3. The following is the number of retirees receiving benefits from the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio from 1991 until 2000: Year Service Year Service Year Service 1991 58,436 1995 67,989 1999 78,341 1992 59,994 1996 70,448 2000 81,111 1993 61,515 1997 72,601 1994 63,182 1998 75,482

a. Determine the least squares trend equation. Use a linear equation. b. Estimate the number of retirees that will be receiving benefits in 2003. Does this seem like a reasonable estimate based on the historical data? c. By how much has the number of retirees increased or decreased (per year) on average during the period?

This is the end of Assignment 08.

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