Theory of Surprise and Strategic Warning
Over 40 years ago, Cynthia Grabo discussed the most frequent impediments to warning. These are: Inadequate examination of the evidence Inadequate understanding of evidence or precedent Excessive preoccupation with current intelligence Predominance of preconceptions over facts Failure to come to clear judgments Misjudgments of timing The reluctance to believe The search for “other explanations” The reluctance to alarm The fear of being wrong. In 2014, Bowman Miller discussed some contemporary challenges associated with strategic intelligence prediction. What are some of the areas in which Grabo and Miller agree? Support your answer.